COVID-19 key research papers and resources

coronavirus and map of China

We have collected important research papers and other resources, under topic headings, on COVID-19 to provide a quick and easy guide to current evidence. Please feel free to let us know about other important new papers as they arise.  Scroll down to check the epidemic curves for global cases and countries of interest. These are updated regularly.

 

 

Paediatric cases and vertical transmission

Lu et al. SARS-COV2 in Children. NEJM 2020

 

Detection of COVID in febrile children in January in Wuhan 

 

Yuanyuan Dong, Xi Mo, Yabin Hu,et al. Epidemiological Characteristics of 2143 Pediatric Patients
With 2019 Coronavirus Disease in China.  
Pediatrics. 2020; doi: 10.1542/peds.2020-0702 

Cai, J. X. J., Daojiong, L; et al (2020). "A Case Series of children with 2019 novel coronavirus infection: clinical and epidemiological features." Clinical Infectious Diseases.

 

Chan, J. F.-W., et al. (2020). "A familial cluster of pneumonia associated with the 2019 novel coronavirus indicating person-to-person transmission: a study of a family cluster." The Lancet.

         

Wei, M., et al. (2020). "Novel Coronavirus Infection in Hospitalized Infants Under 1 Year of Age in China." JAMA.

 

Chen, H. G., J; Wang, C; et al (2020). "Clinical characteristics and intrauterine vertical transmission potential of COVID-19 infection in nine pregnant women: a retrospective review of medical records." Lancet.

 

Asymptomatic children can shed virus for 10 days or more. Lancet.

 

JAMA: neonatal COVID 19

 

Transmission dynamics

Li, Q., et al. (2020). "Early transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China, of novel coronavirus–infected pneumonia." New England Journal of Medicine.

         

Chan, J. F.-W., et al. (2020). "A familial cluster of pneumonia associated with the 2019 novel coronavirus indicating person-to-person transmission: a study of a family cluster." The Lancet.

         

Liu, Y. E., R.M; Kucharski, A.J (2020). "Secondary attack rate and superspreading events for SARS-CoV-2." Lancet.

 

Stephen A. Lauer, MS, PhD *; Kyra H. Grantz, BA *; Qifang Bi, MHS; Forrest K. Jones, MPH; Qulu Zheng, MHS; Hannah R. Meredith, PhD; Andrew S. Azman, PhD; Nicholas G. Reich, PhD; Justin Lessler, PhD. The Incubation Period of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) From Publicly Reported Confirmed Cases: Estimation and Application https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2762808/incubation-period-coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19-from-publicly-reported

 

Retracted study (reasons unknown) showed transmission of COVID19 over 4.5m on a bus  https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3074351/coronavirus-can-travel-twice-far-official-safe-distance-and-stay

COVID can survive in the air for 3 hours https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033217v1.full.pdf

Tapiwa Ganyani, Cecile Kremer, Dongxuan Chen, Andrea Torneri, Christel Faes, Jacco Wallinga, Niel Hens. Estimating the generation interval for COVID-19 based on symptom onset data. MedRXiv 2020 doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.05.20031815

 

Prof Don Milton on WHO statement that COVID-19 is not airborne

 

Viral shedding (including duration of shedding and shedding in “recovered” patients or reinfection)

Zou, L., et al. (2020). "SARS-CoV-2 Viral Load in Upper Respiratory Specimens of Infected Patients." New England Journal of Medicine.  (contains data on asymptomatic shedding)

 

Lan, L. X. D. Y. G. e. a. (2020). "Positive RT-PCR Test Results in Patients Recovered From COVID-19." JAMA.

         

Zhang, J. W., S; Xue, Y (2020). "Fecal Specimen Diagnosis 2019 Novel Coronavirus-Infected Pneumonia." J Med Virol.

 

Study in macaques on reinfection

 

Asymptomatic infection and transmission

 

Asymptomatic infection in aged care (CDC)

 

Nishiura, H., et al. (2020). "The Rate of Underascertainment of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Infection: Estimation Using Japanese Passengers Data on Evacuation Flights." Journal of Clinical Medicine 9(2): 419.

 

Hoehl S, Rabenau H, Berger A, Kortenbusch M, Cinatl J, Bojkova D, et al. Evidence of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Returning Travelers from Wuhan, China. New England Journal of Medicine. 2020.

 

Bai, Y. Y., Lingsheng;Wei, Tao; Tian, Fei; Jin, Dong-Yan; Chen,Lijuan; Wang, Meiyun (2020). "Presumed Asymptomatic Carrier Transmission of COVID-19." JAMA Published online February 21, 2020. doi:10.1001/jama.2020.2565.

         

Rothe, C. S., M; Sothmann, P; et al (2020). "Transmission of 2019-nCoV Infection from an Asymptomatic Contact in Germany." New England Journal of Medicine.

 

Lin, C. D., Y; Xie, B; et al (2020). "Asymptomatic Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Patient Outside Wuhan: The Value of CT Images in the Course of the Disease." Clinical Imaging 63: 7-9.

         

Lu, C. L., X; Jia, Z (2020). "2019-nCoV transmission through the ocular surface must not be ignored." Lancet 395(10224): E39.

         

Estimating the Asymptomatic Proportion of 2019 Novel Coronavirus onboard the Princess Cruises Ship, 2020

Kenji Mizumoto, Katsushi Kagaya, Alexander Zarebski, Gerardo Chowell. medRxiv 2020.02.20.20025866; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.20.20025866

 

Zou, L., et al. (2020). "SARS-CoV-2 Viral Load in Upper Respiratory Specimens of Infected Patients." New England Journal of Medicine.  (contains data on asymptomatic shedding)

Jing Cai1, Wenjie Sun1, Jianping Huang1, Michelle Gamber, Jing Wu , and Guiqing He. Indirect Virus Transmission in Cluster of COVID-19 Cases, Wenzhou, China, 2020 EID 2020; 26: early release.

 

Roman Woelfel, Corman, MV; Guggemos, W et Clinical presentation and virological assessment of hospitalized cases of coronavirus disease 2019 in a travel-associated transmission clusteral https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.05.20030502v1

 

Riyun Li, Sen Pei, Bin Chen et al.  Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2)Science  16 Mar 2020:

 

Transmission in aircraft

 

Why testing matters - the case study of USA

 

Summary of evidence on infectious period

 

Clinical characteristics and epidemiology (including case fatality rate)

Kenji MizumotoImage removed.  and Gerardo Chowell. Estimating Risk for Death from 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease, China, January–February 2020. EID. Volume 26, Number 6—June 2020

 

Zhou F, Du R et al. Clinical course and risk factors for mortality of adult inpatients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: a retrospective cohort study. Lancet. March 9, 2020 https://doi.org/10.1016/ S0140-6736(20)30566-3

 

Lauer SA, Grantz KH, Bi Q, et al. The Incubation Period of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) From Publicly Reported Confirmed Cases: Estimation and Application. Ann Intern Med. 2020; [Epub ahead of print 10 March 2020]. doi: https://doi.org/10.7326/M20-0504

 

Wang, D., et al. (2020). "Clinical Characteristics of 138 Hospitalized Patients With 2019 Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia in Wuhan, China." JAMA.

         

Chen, N. Z., M; Dong X; et al (2020). "Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 99 cases of 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a descriptive study." Lancet.

 

Guan, W. N., Z; Hu, Y; et al (2020). "Clinical Characteristics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in China." New England Journal of Medicine.

         

Huang, C. W., Y; Li, X; et al (2020). "Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China." Lancet.

         

Holshue, M. D., C; Lindquist, S; et al (2020). "First Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus in the United States." New England Journal of Medicine.

         

Young, Ong, SWX; Kalimuddin, S; et al (2020). "Epidemiologic Features and Clinical Course of Patients Infected With SARS-CoV-2 in Singapore." JAMA.

         

The Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Emergency Response Epidemiology Team. The Epidemiological Characteristics of an Outbreak of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Diseases (COVID-19) — China, 2020[J]China CDC Weekly, 2020, 2(8): 113-122

Joseph T Wu, Kathy Leung, Mary Bushman, et al. Estimating clinical severity of COVID-19 from the transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China. Preprint, Nature Research. 2020 DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-17453/v1

 

Case series from Seattle, NEJM

 

Coronavirus: Why it’s so deadly in Italy

 

Who has flattened the curve best?

 

Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis (Lancet)

 

R0 estimates, modelling and epidemic predictions

Wu, J. L., K; Leung, G (2020). "Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study." Lancet 395(10225): 689-697.

         

Li, Q., et al. (2020). "Early transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China, of novel coronavirus–infected pneumonia." New England Journal of Medicine.

 

Anderson, RM; Heesterbeek, H; Klinkenberg, D; Hollingsworth, TD. How will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic? Lancet. Published:March 09, 2020DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30567-5

 

Sensitivity of diagnostic tests including chest imaging

Wenling Wang, PhD1; Yanli Xu, MD2; Ruqin Gao, MD3; et alRoujian Lu, MPH1; Kai Han, BS2; Guizhen Wu, MD1; Wenjie Tan, MD, PhD1. Detection of SARS-CoV-2 in Different Types of Clinical Specimens JAMA. Published online March 11, 2020. doi:10.1001/jama.2020.3786

 

Xie, X., et al. (2020). "Chest CT for Typical 2019-nCoV Pneumonia: Relationship to Negative RT-PCR Testing." Radiology: 200343.

 

Lin, C. D., Y; Xie, B; et al (2020). "Asymptomatic Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Patient Outside Wuhan: The Value of CT Images in the Course of the Disease." Clinical Imaging 63: 7-9.

         

Co-infection with other pathogens

Wang et al. Clinical diagnosis of 8274 samples with 2019-novel coronavirus in Wuhan. MerRIV 2020

Xiaojing Wu, Ying Cai, Xu Huang. Co-infection with SARS-CoV-2 and Influenza A Virus in Patient with Pneumonia, China. EID Volume 26, Number 6—June 2020

 

Phylogenetics

Roujian Lu, Xiang Zhao, Juan Li, Peihua Niu, Bo Yang, Honglong Wu, et al. Genomic characterisation and epidemiology of 2019 novel coronavirus: implications for virus origins and receptor binding. The Lancet, Vol. 395, No. 10224, p565–574

Nextstrain.org from The Bedford Lab provides a continually updated phylogenetic tree  

Phylogenetic analysis of SARS-CoV-2: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College---COVID-19---genetic-analysis-FINAL.pdf

Xiaolu Tang, Changcheng Wu, Xiang Li, Yuhe Song, Xinmin Yao, Xinkai Wu, Yuange Duan, Hong Zhang, Yirong Wang, Zhaohui Qian. On the origin and continuing evolution of SARS-CoV-2. National Science Review, nwaa036, https://doi.org/10.1093/nsr/nwaa036 2020.


Kristian G. Andersen, Andrew Rambaut, W. Ian Lipkin, Edward C. Holmes & Robert F. Garry The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2. Nature Medicine. 2020

The proximal origin of SARS CoV 2

 

Environmental contamination and disinfection

Sean Wei Xiang Ong, Yian Kim Tan, Po Ying Chia, et al. Air, Surface Environmental, and Personal Protective Equipment Contamination by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) From a Symptomatic Patient JAMA. Published online March 4, 2020. doi:10.1001/jama.2020.3227

 

Van Dorelman et al. Aerosol and Surface Stability of SARS-CoV-2 as Compared with SARS-CoV-1. NEJM. March 17, 2020. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMc2004973

 

Kampf, G et al. Persistence of coronaviruses on inanimate surfaces and their inactivation with biocidal agents. J Hosp Inf Cont. 2020. 104, Issue 3, Pages 246–251.

 

SARS-CoV 2 found on surfaces in the Diamond Princess 17 days after passengers disembarked

 

Antivirals, drugs and other treatments

Elifky, A. (2020). "Anti-HCV, Nucleotide Inhibitors, Repurposing Against COVID-19." Life Science.

 

Sheahan, T. P. S., A.C; Leist, S.R; et al (2020). "Comparative Therapeutic Efficacy of Remdesivir and Combination Lopinavir, Ritonavir, and Interferon Beta Against MERS-CoV." Nature Communications 11(1): 222.

         

Gordon, C. J. T., E.P; Feng, J.Y; et. al (2020). "The antiviral compound remdesivir potently inhibits RNA-dependent RNA polymerase from Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus." J Biological Chemistry.

         

Li, G. D. C., E (2020). "Therapeutic options for the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)." Nature Reviews 19.

 

Liying Dong 1Shasha Hu 2Jianjun Gao 1 Discovering Drugs to Treat Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)  Drug Discov Ther 14 (1), 58-60  2020

 

Is ibuprofen safe for people with COVID-19?

 

Cao B et al. A Trial of Lopinavir–Ritonavir in Adults Hospitalized with Severe Covid-19

 

Vaccines

Overview of different vaccine approaches by Sinobiologicals

  

Behzadi MA and Leyva-Grado VH. Front Microbiol 2019 - Review. PMID 31275265 Free PMC article. Overview of Current Therapeutics and Novel Candidates Against Influenza, Respiratory Syncytial Virus, and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infections.

 

Treatment for severe acute respiratory distress syndrome from COVID-19

 

Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical measures (contact tracing, case isolation, quarantine, travel restrictions, PPE)

 

Valentina Costantino (1), David J Heslop (2), C Raina MacIntyre (1).  The effectiveness of full and partial travel bans against COVID-19 spread in Australia for travellers from China. MedRxiv 2020.

Hellewell, J. A., S; Gimma, et al (2020). "Feasibility of controlling COVID-19 outbreaks by isolation of cases and contacts." Lancet Global Health.

 

Chinazzi M, Davis JT, Ajelli M, Gioannini C, Litvinova M, Merler S, Pastore Y Piontti A, Mu K, Rossi L, Sun K, Viboud C, Xiong X, Yu H, Halloran ME, Longini IM Jr, Vespignani A.The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. Science. 2020 Mar 6. pii: eaba9757. doi: 10.1126/science.aba9757. [Epub ahead of print]

 

Peak, C. M., et al. (2017). "Comparing nonpharmaceutical interventions for containing emerging epidemics." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114(15): 4023-4028.

         

Nishiura, H. (2020). "Backcalculating the Incidence of Infection with COVID-19 on the Diamond Princess " Journal of Clinical Medicine 9(3): 657.

         

Rocklov, J. S., H; Wilder-Smith, A (2020). "COVID-19 Outbreak on the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship: Estimating the Epidemic Potential and Effectiveness of Public Health Countermeasures." J Travel Med.

         

Zhao, S. Z., Z; Cao, P; et al (2020). "Quantifying the association between domestic travel and the exportation of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) cases from Wuhan, China in 2020: a correlational analysis " Journal of Travel Medicine.

 

Anzai, A. K., T; Linto, NM; et al (2020). "Assessing the Impact of Reduced Travel on Exportation Dynamics of Novel Coronavirus Infection (COVID-19)." Journal of Clinical Medicine 9(2): 601.

 

Xinghuan Wang, Zhenyu Pan, Zhenshun Cheng. Association between 2019-nCoV transmission and N95 respirator use. medRxiv Feb 19 2020. doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.18.20021881 

 

Kenji Mizumoto, Gerardo Chowell. Transmission potential of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) onboard the Diamond Princess Cruises Ship,   2020 MedRxiv 2020.02.24.20027649; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.24.20027649

 

Shi Zhao, Peihua Cao, Daozhou Gao, Zian Zhuang, Marc Chong, Yongli Cai, Jinjun Ran, Kai Wang, Yijun Lou, Weiming Wang, Lin Yang, Daihai He, Maggie H Wang. Modelling the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak on the Diamond Princess ship using the public surveillance data from January 20 to February 20, 2020

medRxiv 2020.02.26.20028449; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.26.20028449

 

Yixiang Ng, MSc1*; Zongbin Li, MBBS1*; Yi Xian Chua, et al. Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Surveillance and Containment Measures for the First 100 Patients with COVID-19 in Singapore — January 2–February 29, 2020. EID. Early Release / March 13, 2020 / 69

 

Ferguson, N et al. Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand

 

Difference between no, moderate or extensive social distancing in US (Columbia University model)

 

Health workers

Adams JG, Walls RM. Supporting the Health Care Workforce During the COVID-19 Global Epidemic. JAMA. Published online March 12, 2020. doi:10.1001/jama.2020.3972

Asymptomatic infection in health workers in the Netherlands

 

Health systems capacity

Remuzzi, A; Remuzzi, G. COVID-19 and Italy: what next? Lancet 2020. (includes modelling predictions) Published:March 13, 2020DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30627-9

 

ICU beds in Australia

 

Novel contact tracing using digital technology

 

Oxford University government response tracker

 

LSTMH Hospital bed surge capacity tool

 

Practical advice for older people and people with chronic illness

How to Protect Older People From the Coronavirus

 

Failures in response 

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/stay-home-coronavirus-sufferers-incredible-display-of-selfishness/news-story/57b58910893c7f8101b23de16e9bb3cf

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/coronavirus-man-with-covid19-visits-supermarket-after-quarantine-request/news-story/102048e70d8780baebc96a9bcfa673fd

 

 

Social issues, global political and other consequences

Fight over toilet paper

The Coronavirus Could Reshape Global Order

Geographic location of cases in Sydney

 

Resources for GPs

AusDoc COVID 19 Resources for Australian GPs

 

Please check the Prepublication papers on Medrxiv - some of the most important research has been shared on this site for rapid dissemination.

        

 

"Policy Tracker"  Launched by the IMF March 25, summarizes the key economic responses governments are taking to limit the human and economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic as of March 24, 2020. 

The Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker was launched on March 24 and counts data from 73 countries so far, including China, South Korea, Italy, UK and USA. T

 

 

 

Epidemic curves

          

New cases, China (red) and the rest of the world (green)

 

Epidemic curve, Australia

 

Epidemic curve, United States

 

Flattening the curve demonstrated -  Korea vs Italy, Iran, France, Germany, Spain

 

Epidemic curve, European countries